If Cal Raleigh played in a different ballpark, he'd likely be crushing home runs left and right! But what if we told you that his home stadium's location plays a significant role in determining how many dingers he'd hit? In this article, we'll dive into the world of mobile game development and explore how environmental factors affect baseball performance.

For ten years, my friends and I have kept up a tradition: an annual golf trip with a rotating cast of 16 friends—some from high school, some from college, and others we've picked up along the way. Most years, we stick to courses around Seattle, but a few years back our self-appointed golf commissioner decided to mix things up and take us to Denver for what he dubbed The Denver Open. The pitch? Chicks dig the long ball (Please note the Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine reference)

That year at Red Rocks (Denver), the buzz was real. Drives that typically maxed out at 230 yards back home were suddenly rolling past 300. Everyone was hitting career bests. Between the thin air, hot weather, and those firm, dry fairways, the ball was carrying—and rolling—like never before. It was the first time we truly felt the science of elevation at work.

The analysis I will illustrate revisits and builds upon the foundational work from this 2009 analysis by Dr. Alan M. Nathan: https://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/carry.html, that explored the concept of “carry” in Major League Baseball—specifically, how atmospheric conditions like air density, wind, temperature, and elevation affect the distance a baseball travels. That original study helped define carry as the ratio of a batted ball's actual distance to its projected distance in a vacuum, and highlighted key environmental differences across ballparks, such as the notably increased carry in Denver due to high altitude.

In updating this analysis with data from the 2026 season, I found many of the same trends still hold true today. While modern tracking systems like Statcast have provided even more precise trajectory data, the underlying physics remain consistent. Atmospheric conditions—including temperature and elevation—continue to play a significant role in ball carry, and we still observe clear park-to-park variability. Notably, Denver still leads in normalized carry, while parks like Cleveland remain on the lower end of the spectrum.

That same science helps explain why baseballs fly farther in some parks than others—and why a slugger like Cal Raleigh might actually be on pace to challenge Aaron Judge's 62 or even Barry Bonds' 73 if he played in a different home stadium.

Ranked Ballparks based on Distance per Similar Contact

Below are the top-ranked home team stadiums to hit in, based on a metric I calculated: Distance divided by Launch Velocity. By grouping this metric into Launch Angle tiers, we can isolate similar bat contact conditions and determine which locations yield the most distance. In this setup, the primary remaining variable is the game's location.

(Note: the table is sorted based on the 30 degree - 33 degree launch angle tiers)

From the chart above, it's clear that the Colorado Rockies have a significant advantage in hitting distance compared to teams like the Mariners, Red Sox, Rays—and really, most of MLB. Now that we've established that Rockies hitters benefit from their environment while Mariners hitters may be at a disadvantage... let’s dig a little deeper. After all, when you look at the data, it’s not hard to see why the Mariners had such slim odds of landing Ohtani over the Dodgers.

The scatter plot on the left represents the 2026 MLB Balls in Play. The large dots are the Colorado Rockies, while the small tiny dots are batted balls by other teams.

The red dots represent any batted ball that has an above average hit with Distance Travelled / Launch Velocity.

The main takeaway from this view is simply the Colorado Rockies have a lot of red dots! This means the ball goes further than most.

Location Factor Ratios (Distance Hit)

Below is the calculated Location Factors based on the analysis. Mariners are set to 1.000 as I am using them as the baseline for this analysis. As you can see by the chart below, the balls hit in Colorado travel roughly 9% further than the balls in Seattle.

Since this article is about how many Home Runs Cal Raleigh would hit in New York, we see a roughly 2-3% distance improvement from 30-39 degree launch angles at Yankee Stadium. The Mets have a very similar increase as well.

One ballpark that continues to rank near the bottom in terms of carry is Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, home of the Mariners. The consistently poor carry values here suggest that Seattle presents one of the toughest environments in MLB for hitting home runs. There are several plausible reasons for this:

Cool, humid climate: Seattle has relatively cool temperatures during much of the baseball season, especially early in the year. Cooler air is denser, which increases drag and reduces ball carry.

Humidity and marine air: Despite the common misconception that humid air is denser, in colder climates like Seattle, moist marine air can still feel heavy due to lower temperatures and increased water vapor absorption at low altitudes.

Low elevation: Seattle sits near sea level, meaning balls don’t benefit from the altitude-assisted travel seen in parks like Denver or even Phoenix.

Prevailing winds: Wind patterns in the Pacific Northwest may also play a role, often not favoring hitters—though this is more variable and requires directional spray angle analysis for deeper insight.

The similarities between the 2009 article and today’s data emphasize how consistently environment shapes the game, even as equipment and player training evolve. This updated work reaffirms the value of incorporating climate and location into ballpark analysis and highlights the importance of looking beyond raw home run totals when evaluating hitter performance.

How Many HR would Cal Raleigh have if his Home Games were at Yankee Stadium?

I chose Yankee Stadium for this analysis because it's one of the most extreme hitter-friendly environments in baseball—especially for left-handed power. While it's difficult to predict exactly how many home runs Cal Raleigh would hit at Yankee Stadium, we can use location factors to estimate his performance.